After two years of consecutive losses, the global real estate market has finally turned a corner, indicating a potential recovery in the industry. The low interest rates of recent years drove property values to new heights, with global total returns reaching an impressive 5.0% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021 and a staggering 17.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 – far exceeding long-term averages.
However, the subsequent tightening cycle reversed these gains, bringing property values back to 2018 levels globally. This correction in the real estate market appears to be reaching its conclusion, presenting an ideal opportunity for investors to revisit this asset class. Historically, real estate has offered stable income returns and valuable diversification benefits over the long term, while also delivering strong returns during times of economic recovery. For example, following the recession in the early 1990s, investors saw a cumulative return of 76% over the course of the next five years.
In recent news, Nuveen Real Estate has announced plans to sell its stake in the mixed-use project St James Quarter and W Edinburgh Hotel in Edinburgh, Scotland in order to reallocate funds. This aligns with our belief that the real estate market is stabilizing and presents attractive investment opportunities.
In the second quarter of 2024, global property values saw moderate losses of 0.74% – the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. However, offsetting income returns of 1.07% led to a positive return of 0.33%, marking the first positive quarter since 2022.
Of the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, more than half saw increases in real estate values for the first time since 2022. This includes countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK. Six markets saw slight losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, but all of these have moderated since the first quarter of 2024. The only outlier was Australia, where a larger write-down of 4.2% in the second quarter aligned its valuations with those of its peers. However, it’s important to note that changes in capital values are just one aspect of real estate returns. Income returns have historically been the main driver of overall performance, underlining the need for investors to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
Total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of the 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index in the second quarter. They remained flat in the US at -0.09%, marginally negative in Ireland at -0.22%, and significantly negative in Australia at -3.07%. However, the preliminary NCREIF ODCE index, which is a capitalization-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index for US property, showed a positive return of 0.25%. As property values continue to rebound, we anticipate a positive trajectory for total returns.
Looking to Asia Pacific, there are indications of a potential rebound in real estate investment globally after two slow years. However, China and Japan may face some challenges. In the third quarter of 2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in the region. However, both countries are facing high debt costs and other factors that may hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows. China, in particular, has seen a decline in demand from the Western market, and with the ongoing property crisis, many European investors are avoiding it despite its potential returns. Japan remains an outlier in terms of interest rates, which has limited cap rate compression and dampened the appeal of the broader property sector. However, assets such as senior housing, which cater to Japan’s aging population, continue to be attractive due to consolidation opportunities for investors.
Singapore is a prime location for investing in condos due to its potential for capital appreciation. With its position as a global business hub and strong economic foundation, there is a constant demand for real estate in the country. This has resulted in a steady increase in property prices over the years, especially for condos located in prime areas. By entering the market at the opportune moment and holding onto their properties for a significant duration, investors can reap the benefits of considerable capital gains. This is further enhanced by the Singapore Projects launched in recent years, providing even more potential for capital appreciation.
One area that presents potential for growth is Australia’s purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market. With a significant shortage of student housing in cities like Melbourne and Sydney, only 20% of students can be accommodated by universities, leaving the rest to look for private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction projects and developers struggling to secure bank financing. Sectors such as logistics and PBSA offer long-term growth opportunities.
Overall, the real estate market appears to be near its bottom, with stabilizing valuations and transaction market pricing. However, these signals alone do not guarantee an attractive entry point for investors. For market pricing and valuations to continue rising, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most major central banks are tapering interest rates, which should lead to lower financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalization rates, thereby increasing the value of real estate assets. Additionally, a reduction in construction activity across sectors bodes well for property fundamentals, with markets experiencing positive demand due to factors such as population growth and shifts towards e-commerce likely to see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth have been strongly correlated, offering investors opportunities to benefit from rising occupancies, rents, and ultimately, property values.
While some challenges remain, such as the struggling US office market, the overall outlook for global private real estate is improving. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well. In an uncertain economic and geopolitical climate, risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has decreased significantly due to resetting values and a record-breaking stock market. However, with the market now showing signs of recovery, it may be an opportune time for investors to consider increasing their allocation to private real estate to achieve a strategic weighting in their portfolios. Over the long term, real estate has demonstrated low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and the potential for inflation-hedging. While there may be challenges along the way, we believe the tide is turning for the real estate market and presents promising opportunities for savvy investors.…